[1]郭敏珊,陈小燕,梁伟,等.妊娠期糖尿病患者启动药物干预风险模型的建立[J].国际内分泌代谢杂志,2022,42(05):349-353，386.[doi:10.3760/cma.j.cn121383-20210712-07031]
　Guo Minshan,Chen Xiaoyan,Liang Wei,et al.Construction of a risk model for initiating pharmacological intervention in gestational diabetes mellitus[J].International Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism,2022,42(05):349-353，386.[doi:10.3760/cma.j.cn121383-20210712-07031]
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妊娠期糖尿病患者启动药物干预风险模型的建立()
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《国际内分泌代谢杂志》[ISSN:1673-4157/CN:12-1383/R]

卷:
42
期数:
2022年05期
页码:
349-353，386
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2022-09-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction of a risk model for initiating pharmacological intervention in gestational diabetes mellitus
作者:
郭敏珊1; 2; 陈小燕3; 梁伟2; 马金香4; 贾亦真5
1广州医科大学 511436; 2香港大学深圳医院内分泌科 518053; 3广州医科大学附属第一医院内分泌科 510120; 4广州医科大学统计学院 510030; 5香港大学深圳医院中心实验室 518053
Author(s):
Guo Minshan1; 2;  Chen Xiaoyan3;  Liang Wei2;  Ma Jinxiang4;  Jia Yizhen5.
1Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 511436, China; 2Department of Endocrine, the University of HongKong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen 518053, China; 3Department of Endocrine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510120, China; 4Department of Statistics, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510030, China; 5Department of Core Laboratory, the University of HongKong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen 518053, China
关键词:
妊娠期糖尿病;  药物干预;  风险模型
Keywords:
Gestational diabetes mellitus;  Pharmacological intervention;  Risk model
DOI:
10.3760/cma.j.cn121383-20210712-07031
摘要:
目的 构建妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)启动药物干预的风险模型。方法 回顾性分析2015年3月至2017年4月香港大学深圳医院GDM患者669例,比较药物干预组(n=110)和生活方式干预组(n=559)各临床指标的差异,利用logistic回归建立风险模型,应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线及Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验(HL检验)进行评价,并选取75例GDM进行内部验证。结果 本研究纳入孕28周前的孕期体重增加(ΔW)、孕前体重指数(BMI)、口服糖耐量试验(OGTT)-0 h、OGTT-2 h共4个危险因素,建立风险模型:Z=0.270×ΔW+0.167×孕前BMI+1.768×OGTT-0 h+0.371×OGTT-2 h-18.787。模型ROC曲线下面积为0.809,HL检验P>0.05。内部验证结果:模型灵敏度64.7%,特异度79.3%,准确率76.0%。结论 本模型有一定临床参考价值,但其泛化能力及模型的稳定性和适用性有待进一步验证。
Abstract:
Objective To establish a risk model of pharmacological intervention for gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM).Methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 669 GDM in the University of HongKong-Shenzhen Hospital from Mar. 2015 to Apr. 2017. And indicators of pharmacological intervention group(n=110)and lifestyle intervention group(n=559)were compared. Logistic regression was used to establish a risk model. The ROC curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test were used to test the model's efficiency. A total of 75 GDM patients were selected to evaluate the model's effect as internal validation.Results The four risk factors including weight gain during the first and second trimester(Δweight), pre-pregnancy BMI, OGTT-0 h and OGTT-2 h were included in the risk model. The model formula was: Z=0.270×Δweight+0.167×BMI+1.768×OGTT-0 h+0.371×OGTT-2 h-18.787. The AUC was 0.809, with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test P>0.05. The internal validation showed the sensitivity, specificity, and the accuracy of this model were 64.7%, 79.3% and 76.0%, respectively.Conclusion The risk model has certain clinical reference value, but its generalization ability and the stability and applicability of the model need further verification.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
通信作者:陈小燕, Email:gzscxy@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-09-10